Market participants and analysts are focused on the upcoming reduction in oil supplies due to US sanctions against Iran, which will be introduced in November. However, the market faces a more disturbing problem.
Experts predict that if large oil fields are not discovered in the near future, the world will face a shortage of oil in the mid-2020s.
According to the estimates of the consulting company Wood Mackenzie, the supply shortage will arise in the middle of the next decade. With the current level of technology and the discovery of oil fields, the shortage of oil can reach 3 million barrels per day by 2030, 7 million by 2035 and 12 million by 2040.
The point is not that discoveries are not being made, they are simply not enough to offset the natural decline in mature fields, while global oil demand is expected to continue to grow.
Exploration expenditures dropped sharply after the fall in oil prices in 2014. The good news, according to Wood Mackenzie, is that the amount of new discoveries correlates with exploration spending. Therefore, in the event of an increase in costs, the likelihood of discovering new oil fields should increase.
Guyana (in Latin America) is one of the few giant oil fields discovered during the recession. Wood Mackenzie chief analyst Simon Flowers said that the world needs more such deposits, much more, and in the very near future. Without them, the oil market will face a shortage in the near future.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced in September that global oil consumption will exceed 100 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of this year. Last month, OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo also announced that fact.
The world will reach a mark of consumption of 100 million barrels a day later this year – much earlier than anyone had predicted. Therefore, stabilizing forces are needed that create the conditions for attracting investment, Barkindo said at an energy conference in Cape Town.